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It’s actually fairly easy to explain Donald Trump’s rise

I guess we should start here: he’s not going to win the GOP nomination. He might run top-3 for a portion of the primaries, but he won’t win. I don’t even think he thinks he’ll win; I doubt any staff… Continue Reading

Evenwel vs. Abbott might change a lot about Hispanic voter influence

Hispanic Voting Power vs. Eligible to Vote

Start here: Of the 25 districts with the highest Hispanic population shares, 19 also are among the 25 districts with the lowest eligible-voter share. This is because so many Hispanics aren’t eligible to vote, either because they’re not U.S. citizens… Continue Reading

The Koch Brothers are 2016

Koch Brothers 2016 Election

Dark money — and the ultimate human representation of dark money, that being the Koch Brothers — should probably terrify you. You can ultimately look at this in 1 of 2 ways, best I can tell: To have a set of… Continue Reading

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Here’s President Obama’s 2015 State of the Union word cloud

SOTU Word Cloud 2015

Here are the word clouds for the third State of the Union of every President since Roosevelt — i.e. the penultimate ones — and below (in large format, as well as to the side here in smaller format) is President… Continue Reading

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How about Brian Sandoval as a 2016 political force, either against Harry Reid or in a dark-horse run at the Presidency?

I initially wanted to write a post about Gary Herbert, the Governor of Utah — by some measures, he’s the most popular Governor in America. Problem is, he’s a Republican, and Utah is a pretty red state — obviously it went… Continue Reading

Political trend line: young white millennials are basically libertarians. Can they save the GOP?

The electoral map isn’t very favorable to the GOP, and their strategy/culture isn’t either, and while they may do OK in the midterms — midterms typically favor the non-Presidential party anyway — their 2016 prospects look dim at present. But ah ha!… Continue Reading

The coronation of Marco Rubio, Chris Christie or (whoever) will happen in Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus, Denver, Dallas, Kansas City, Las Vegas or Phoenix

The 2012 GOP Convention in Tampa was a straight-up mess from a traffic standpoint (and a Clint Eastwood standpoint, and a Mitt Romney standpoint…) and the hotel and buses situation wasn’t ideal for GOP operatives and the thousands of others who… Continue Reading

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The GOP spends too much time talking about “culture,” which is an amorphous blob of a term

The GOP’s definitely got some issues — for example, the electoral map isn’t very favorable to them. They thought someone like Christie or Walker or Rubio was a potential big bet for ’16, and now their best option might be a… Continue Reading