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It’s actually fairly easy to explain Donald Trump’s rise

I guess we should start here: he’s not going to win the GOP nomination. He might run top-3 for a portion of the primaries, but he won’t win. I don’t even think he thinks he’ll win; I doubt any staff… Continue Reading →

Evenwel vs. Abbott might change a lot about Hispanic voter influence

Hispanic Voting Power vs. Eligible to Vote

Start here: Of the 25 districts with the highest Hispanic population shares, 19 also are among the 25 districts with the lowest eligible-voter share. This is because so many Hispanics aren’t eligible to vote, either because they’re not U.S. citizens… Continue Reading →

The Koch Brothers are 2016

Koch Brothers 2016 Election

Dark money — and the ultimate human representation of dark money, that being the Koch Brothers — should probably terrify you. You can ultimately look at this in 1 of 2 ways, best I can tell: To have a set of… Continue Reading →

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Here’s President Obama’s 2015 State of the Union word cloud

SOTU Word Cloud 2015

Here are the word clouds for the third State of the Union of every President since Roosevelt — i.e. the penultimate ones — and below (in large format, as well as to the side here in smaller format) is President… Continue Reading →

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How about Brian Sandoval as a 2016 political force, either against Harry Reid or in a dark-horse run at the Presidency?

I initially wanted to write a post about Gary Herbert, the Governor of Utah — by some measures, he’s the most popular Governor in America. Problem is, he’s a Republican, and Utah is a pretty red state — obviously it went… Continue Reading →

Political trend line: young white millennials are basically libertarians. Can they save the GOP?

The electoral map isn’t very favorable to the GOP, and their strategy/culture isn’t either, and while they may do OK in the midterms — midterms typically favor the non-Presidential party anyway — their 2016 prospects look dim at present. But ah ha!… Continue Reading →

The coronation of Marco Rubio, Chris Christie or (whoever) will happen in Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus, Denver, Dallas, Kansas City, Las Vegas or Phoenix

The 2012 GOP Convention in Tampa was a straight-up mess from a traffic standpoint (and a Clint Eastwood standpoint, and a Mitt Romney standpoint…) and the hotel and buses situation wasn’t ideal for GOP operatives and the thousands of others who… Continue Reading →

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The GOP spends too much time talking about “culture,” which is an amorphous blob of a term

The GOP’s definitely got some issues — for example, the electoral map isn’t very favorable to them. They thought someone like Christie or Walker or Rubio was a potential big bet for ’16, and now their best option might be a… Continue Reading →